Bruins vs Lightning Example.

Alright. Before I start on Pythagorean Part Deux, let's take a look at that last example. Bruins vs Lightning, 3/13/12. Final score: Bruins 1 - Lightning 6. But the Bruins had a 7.53 Pwin advantage that night. In the previous post, I mentioned that Pwin is the first filter and other statistics must be considered. Here are the other contributing factors (more detail for some of these in later posts):

Schedule

Bruins played their 4th game in 6 nights and had back to back away games. They just played a tough game against playoff contender Pittsburgh Penguins. Lightning played their 3rd game in 6 nights and 1st in 3 nights. Lightning been at home after 3/8/12 game against Washington Capitals. Plenty of rest.

Injuries

Key player for Bruins (Nathan Horton) out with concussion since January.  Before injury Horton's concussion, Bruins were 31-13-2.  After concussion (to end of regular season), 18-16-2. Go figure. Starting goalie Tim Thomas needed rest. Backup goalie Tuukka Rask has an injury to left leg. In comes 3rd string goalie Marty Turco to start. He is garbage by the way. The guy was signed by the Bruins a week earlier, and this game was his first start as a Bruin. He allowed 3 goals within the first 5 minutes. Needless to say, the game was over in the first period as the Lightning scored 4 goals in 10 shots. 

NHL Playoff Round 1 Predictions

Haven't had a chance to follow-up on the last Pythagorean post yet, but will do so when I get a chance. Here are my playoff predictions though!

West
Los Angeles Kings 4 vs Vancouver Canucks 3 (Canucks can very well take this, but I'm giving Kings the defensive advantage here)

San Jose Sharks 4 vs St. Louis Blues 2 (Actually 4-3 is my prediction, but I think Sharks will need to win it in 6. Blues will be tough to beat in Game 7.)

Chicago Blackhawks 2 vs Phoenix Coyotes 4 (Phoenix with better goaltending and they are on a hot streak)

Detroit Red Wings 4 vs Nashville Predators 2 (meh. I have nothing to say about this matchup.)

East
Ottawa Senators 4 vs New York Rangers 3 (Toss-up IMO, but Ottawa has good value in this matchup.)

Washington Capitals 0 vs Boston Bruins 4 (This can get ugly quickly)

New Jersey Devils 4 vs Florida Panthers 3 (Devils are hot right now)

Philadelphia Flyers 3 vs Pittsburgh Penguins 4 (Penguins Stanley Cup Finals)


There is definitely great value on the dogs in the West. If I were to place some series futures... I would play the following:

Los Angeles Kings Series +165
Detroit Red Wings Series +100
Ottawa Senators Series +190
San Jose Sharks +125
Phoenix Coyotes +110
Pittsburgh Penguins to win 4-3 +350
Pittsburgh Penguins to win 4-2 +400
Boston Bruins to win series 4-0 +800
Boston Bruins to win series 4-1 +330

Of course, we'll have to monitor to see how the series actually goes so we can hedge if things don't go our way, or add more if opportunities arise.