Intro.

Welcome to Xeziometrix. Over the past year and a half or so, I have had several requests from friends asking me about my approach to sabremetrics and how I evaluate team performance in professional sports.  For those of you who are not familiar with the concept, just think Moneyball. Using statistics, Billy Beane and the Oakland A's revolutionized the way baseball is managed and played. Prior to that, Bill James used mathematical models determine the value of players. I stumbled upon these ideas a few years ago when I got tired of losing in sports wagering. How did Las Vegas sports bookies settle on the point spread of a game? How did they determine the odds of a team winning straight up? These were some questions I asked myself. In the summer of 2010, with the help of a few people I've gotten to know along the way, I searched for the answers.

Prior to this, I never really enjoyed watching baseball. It was boring, and I never really understood it. However, because sabremetrics was founded on the extensiveness of baseball statistics, that is where I had to start. It was also a great time to start tracking the sport as the San Francisco Giants went on to secure the World Series title that year. Call me a bandwagoner if you will.

My approach to sabremetrics is primarily focused on evaluating a team as a whole and to predict the winners of each game. I could really care less if Albert Pujols' 10-year contract is really worth $254 million. The goal of this blog is to demonstrate how to interpret the numbers and to exploit mistakes and public perception presented by bookies, to evaluate sports wagers and rank sports teams using algebra and statistics. Just look at the stats and find out what works and what doesn't. Simple as that. We will explore four major sports: MLB, NHL, NFL and NBA. Eventually, I will also provide a winning NCAAF system that hit at a rate of 68% last season. The beauty of this system is, you won't even have to think for a second when you make these picks. 

Also, please be aware that I am no longer running any analyses nor tracking any games besides my home teams for the upcoming sport seasons. However, it does not mean I am not paying attention. I will not shut the door on what could be a great opportunity. Let me tell you now, once you get all these numbers in your head, it is difficult to watch a game without thinking about it. I am willing to share what I have personally learned and explain ideas utilized by sabremetricians in hopes that you will be able to build upon and formulate new ideas. As games evolve and change, equations and focus will need tweaking as well. There is a saying, "We cannot direct the wind, but we can adjust the sails." Remember, whatever is published on the internet, Vegas has access to them. Develop your own methods to beat the game. 

Questions and comments are encouraged. Please feel free to post to the blog.