Saturday, April 14, 2012

Bruins vs Lightning Example.

Alright. Before I start on Pythagorean Part Deux, let's take a look at that last example. Bruins vs Lightning, 3/13/12. Final score: Bruins 1 - Lightning 6. But the Bruins had a 7.53 Pwin advantage that night. In the previous post, I mentioned that Pwin is the first filter and other statistics must be considered. Here are the other contributing factors (more detail for some of these in later posts):

Schedule

Bruins played their 4th game in 6 nights and had back to back away games. They just played a tough game against playoff contender Pittsburgh Penguins. Lightning played their 3rd game in 6 nights and 1st in 3 nights. Lightning been at home after 3/8/12 game against Washington Capitals. Plenty of rest.

Injuries

Key player for Bruins (Nathan Horton) out with concussion since January.  Before injury Horton's concussion, Bruins were 31-13-2.  After concussion (to end of regular season), 18-16-2. Go figure. Starting goalie Tim Thomas needed rest. Backup goalie Tuukka Rask has an injury to left leg. In comes 3rd string goalie Marty Turco to start. He is garbage by the way. The guy was signed by the Bruins a week earlier, and this game was his first start as a Bruin. He allowed 3 goals within the first 5 minutes. Needless to say, the game was over in the first period as the Lightning scored 4 goals in 10 shots. 

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