Monday, July 16, 2012

Runs to date

Runs - Season to date


Team Actual RPG xRuns Difference
Angels 4.45 4.53 0.08
Astros 3.92 3.89 -0.03
Athletics 3.90 3.92 0.03
Blue Jays 4.99 4.84 -0.14
Braves 4.68 4.56 -0.12
Brewers 4.57 4.60 0.03
Cardinals 4.87 4.96 0.10
Cubs 3.77 3.79 0.01
D-backs 4.30 4.44 0.14
Dodgers 3.80 3.80 0.00
Giants 3.92 3.99 0.06
Indians 4.49 4.56 0.07
Mariners 3.84 3.68 -0.16
Marlins 3.83 3.93 0.11
Mets 4.57 4.45 -0.12
Nationals 4.16 4.25 0.09
Orioles 4.10 4.11 0.01
Padres 3.56 3.66 0.10
Phillies 4.26 4.32 0.07
Pirates 4.08 4.00 -0.08
Rangers 5.06 5.12 0.06
Rays 4.18 4.02 -0.16
Red Sox 5.06 5.01 -0.05
Reds 4.20 4.31 0.10
Rockies 4.83 4.83 0.00
Royals 4.13 4.27 0.14
Tigers 4.54 4.62 0.08
Twins 4.14 4.29 0.15
White Sox 4.81 4.74 -0.07
Yankees 4.90 5.14 0.25



Runs - Last 15 games played


Team Actual RPG xRuns Difference
Angels 5.87 5.58 -0.28
Astros 2.27 2.26 -0.01
Athletics 4.07 4.40 0.34
Blue Jays 5.40 5.62 0.22
Braves 5.20 5.15 -0.05
Brewers 5.60 5.41 -0.19
Cardinals 3.93 3.92 -0.01
Cubs 4.13 3.80 -0.33
D-backs 3.53 3.95 0.41
Dodgers 2.67 2.76 0.10
Giants 3.20 3.33 0.13
Indians 5.73 6.09 0.35
Mariners 2.60 2.30 -0.30
Marlins 4.07 4.35 0.29
Mets 5.47 5.13 -0.34
Nationals 6.20 6.32 0.12
Orioles 3.40 3.41 0.01
Padres 4.40 4.31 -0.09
Phillies 3.87 3.80 -0.07
Pirates 6.87 6.94 0.07
Rangers 4.13 3.82 -0.32
Rays 3.93 4.07 0.13
Red Sox 3.87 4.07 0.21
Reds 3.53 3.99 0.46
Rockies 4.07 4.28 0.22
Royals 4.60 4.69 0.09
Tigers 5.67 5.76 0.09
Twins 4.60 4.58 -0.02
White Sox 6.00 6.16 0.16
Yankees 5.47 5.57 0.10

Pwin Season-to-date


Team Win % Pwin
angels 0.5506
0.13
astros 0.3708
3.43
athletics 0.5169
0.55
blue jays 0.5056
1.94
braves 0.5568
-0.71
brewers 0.4773
1.51
cardinals 0.5169
5.03
cubs 0.4091
1.71
diamondbacks 0.4773
1.79
dodgers 0.5333
-2.40
giants 0.5506
-4.73
indians 0.5114
-4.20
mariners 0.4111
5.04
marlins 0.4773
-4.80
mets 0.5169
-0.29
nationals 0.5930
-0.26
orioles 0.5227
-6.48
padres 0.4000
0.90
phillies 0.4333
3.42
pirates 0.5568
-1.76
rangers 0.6067
-1.98
rays 0.5169
-1.50
red sox 0.5056
4.00
reds 0.5682
-0.60
rockies 0.3864
4.02
royals 0.4368
1.34
tigers 0.5169
-0.18
twins 0.4091
-1.63
white sox 0.5568
1.29
yankees 0.6136
-3.38

Here are the Pwins to date. Giants need to get their act together and stop winning these games by 1 run.

Remember. Weak teams will always be "due" wins, because they still score. Same goes for very good teams. They will still get scored on and will always be "due" losses. And, well, if weak teams are still "due" some losses (twins), then they are still overperforming- even with a low win percentage so we can find value betting against these teams. We are on the Twins today cause they are playing the Orioles, which I believe need to regress faster than the Twins. Especially with the lowest Pwin.

Teams who have a yellow highlight in the win percentage are within two deviations away from average.