Welcome to Xeziometrix.
Over the past year and a half or so, I have had several requests from friends
asking me about my approach to sabremetrics and how I evaluate team performance
in professional sports. For those of you who are not familiar with the
concept, just think Moneyball. Using statistics, Billy Beane and
the Oakland A's revolutionized the way baseball is managed and played. Prior to
that, Bill James used mathematical models determine the value of players. I
stumbled upon these ideas a few years ago when I got tired of losing in sports
wagering. How did Las Vegas sports bookies settle on the point spread of a
game? How did they determine the odds of a team winning straight up? These were
some questions I asked myself. In the summer of 2010, with the help of a few people I've gotten to know along the way, I searched for the answers.
Prior to this, I never
really enjoyed watching baseball. It was boring, and I never really understood it.
However, because sabremetrics was founded on the extensiveness of baseball
statistics, that is where I had to start. It was also a great time to start
tracking the sport as the San Francisco Giants went on to secure the World
Series title that year. Call me a bandwagoner if you will.
My approach to
sabremetrics is primarily focused on evaluating a team as a whole and to
predict the winners of each game. I could really care less if Albert Pujols'
10-year contract is really worth $254 million. The goal of this blog is to
demonstrate how to interpret the numbers and to exploit mistakes and public
perception presented by bookies, to evaluate sports wagers and rank sports
teams using algebra and statistics. Just look at the stats and find out what
works and what doesn't. Simple as that. We will explore four major sports: MLB,
NHL, NFL and NBA. Eventually, I will also provide a winning NCAAF system that hit at
a rate of 68% last season. The beauty of this system is, you won't even have to
think for a second when you make these picks.
Also, please be aware that I am no longer
running any analyses nor tracking any games besides my home teams for the upcoming sport seasons. However, it does not mean I
am not paying attention. I will not shut the door on what could be a great opportunity. Let me tell you
now, once you get all these numbers in your head, it is difficult to watch a
game without thinking about it. I am willing to share what I have personally
learned and explain ideas utilized by sabremetricians in hopes that you will be
able to build upon and formulate new ideas. As games evolve and change,
equations and focus will need tweaking as well. There is a saying, "We
cannot direct the wind, but we can adjust the sails." Remember, whatever
is published on the internet, Vegas has access to them. Develop your own
methods to beat the game.
Questions and comments are encouraged. Please feel free to
post to the blog.
Hi m8, hope all is well. Looking forward in learning in saber metrics as I'm keen on stats etc. I have done well in 1st innings home runs in American league. Learnt from other boys n trig it to my satisfaction using era n batter avg etc. Gud luk.
ReplyDeleteWhen's the next post brotha?
ReplyDeleteMy man!
ReplyDeleteLooking forward to reading everything you jot down Xez. You have a wealth of knowledge that I've been witness too first hand. You've helped me understand some core concepts, track more efficiently, and apply statistics to compliment things I already looked for.
Errrrrbody listen to this cat, he knows what he's talking about.
-mase10
lab rats!
ReplyDelete